Tuesday, December 18, 2007

I wonder if it is just me or . . . .

I don't know about anyone else, but reading the news lately, I have been struck by the speed with which there are news stories that are starting to abound that worry the hell out of me.

Let me give you a few instances:

US missile shield 'could spark Russian missile strike'
"The Russian army's chief of staff has accused the West of playing politics with European arms control and warned that the launch of US interceptor missiles could trigger a Russian missile strike.

"Western states have deliberately turned an agreement on European arms control into an instrument to achieve political aims" against Russia, Yuri Baluyevksy said at a press conference broadcast on state television.

Russia on December 12 walked away from the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, a key Cold War agreement that limits the stationing of troops and heavy weapons from the Atlantic coast to Russia's Ural mountains.

General Baluyevsky criticised the NATO alliance's eastward expansion to the Russian border but said Russia had "no plans for massing troops", despite now having the freedom to do so after suspending its adherence to the treaty.

Russia said it pulled out of the CFE because of the failure of 26 NATO members to ratify the revised 1999 version of the treaty."

Then of course there is:

Japan shoots down missile in milestone test

"The shoot-down marked a success for a shipboard detection and tracking tool called Aegis built by Lockheed Martin Corporation and the Standard Missile-3 interceptor, produced by Raytheon Corporation.

The interceptor was fired by JS Kongo, the first of four Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force destroyers due to be outfitted to counter missiles that could carry chemical, biological or nuclear warheads.

The medium-range target missile was launched from a US range on Kauai.

The Pentagon's Missile Defence Agency (MDA) said Japan paid entirely for the $US55 million ($64 million) test.

US-Japanese missile-defence cooperation has grown greatly since North Korea fired a three-stage Taepo Dong 1 missile over Japan on August 31, 1998.

The Kongo will now return to Japan with its load of SM-3 interceptors to start defending against ballistic missile attacks."

US warns Iran after fuel shipment

"Washington says Iran has no need to continue its own nuclear programme now that Russia has started delivering fuel to the Bushehr power plant.

But Tehran says it will not stop the uranium enrichment process despite the threat of further UN sanctions.

It is the first time Iran has received a fuel delivery from Russia, which is building the Bushehr plant."

Iran could have nukes by 2010: Olmert

"Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert believes Iran will have the resources to create a nuclear weapon by 2010, despite a US intelligence report that it was not building an atomic bomb.

Mr Olmert has told his Cabinet that Iran was continuing to enrich uranium and develop ballistic missiles and that Israel would press the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to "expose Iran's nuclear weapons activity".

The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), published last Monday, said Iran's nuclear weapons program was frozen in 2003 and remained on hold, contradicting an earlier report that the Islamic Republic was bent on building the bomb."

Now I don't know what you all make of this, but let me give you a version of reality that appeals to my twisted logic.

Japan is afraid of China and it's expanded economic and military prowess and of course is even more concerned about North Korea ever since it demonstrated that it had the bomb and the missile technology to carry them to Japan and elsewhere including Russia and China of course who are both within range.

So given that the Russians have issued a very simple comment that they would regard a missile defence shield in Europe as a threat to themselves the US and Japan have been testing all this stuff in the Pacific a place less likely to cause the Russian's the same degree of Angst. What it does for North Korea and China is a different story. What it does for China the USA and Taiwan is different again!

Meanwhile we have the Russians building a nuclear plant in Iran and the Iranians having the technology and missiles that are now capable of sending all sorts of mayhem across to Israel and of course their neighbours in the Arab states.

We have the Israelis who were attacked by Iraq when the Gulf War was happening and who just happened to get the first of the missile interceptors that were then available when the equivalent of the WW2 V2 rockets which contained Iraq's warheads slammed into Israel. Now that the USA has - through its proxy in Japan managed to successfully test another interception system for more sophisticated ballistic missiles than the Iraqis ever had, it is not surprising that both China and Russia are worried about what this will mean in their near neighbourhoods.

I would NOT be at all surprised if the Israelis would actually ask for some of the Aegis detection and tracking tools built by Lockheed Martin and the Standard Missile-3 interceptors, produced by Raytheon Corporation. What they are then likely to do is to somehow invest heavily to convert the technology of the Aegis system into something that can be used from a land based situation and or ask for Aegis equipped ships that they can base in both the Mediterranean or the Gulf from bases in or near Eilat. Here is unfortunately where the problems becomes greater.

Once you have systems like these land based or in the Mediterranean or the Gulf you have the possibility of a successful missile defence shield which they makes first strikes all the more possible as retaliation is no longer something that needs necessarily to be feared and MAD or Mutually Assured Destruction is no longer necessarily the scenario that it has been since the time when the cold war first started.

Before President Bush leaves office I am dreadfully fearful that he will be able to learn to pronounce "nuclear" as it should be pronounced and what's worse he may in fact increase the level of danger that faces us all at least several notches in intensity.

For those of us currently complaining about global warming let's also have a look at this range of activities by the US and their allies and ask some questions about whether these people really are serious about protecting us or actually setting into motion the bases for the next major outbreak of hostilities that will make global warming positively desirable in comparison with a likely nuclear wasteland.

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